Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Wise quotes for investing in stocks.

Everywhere around me people seem to be let down by the market. They are desperate to recover from their financial losses. Since I have just started my career I would like to adopt a couple of quotes to serve as guides for my future investments. While browsing around I came across a number of quotes which seemed apt for the current scenario the market is in.

Peter Lynch, the legendary stock picker, thinks that stock bargains are plentiful now. He quotes "You feel like a mosquito in a nudist colony, we’ve had 11 recessions since World War II and we've had a perfect score - 11 recoveries."

This quote tells me that this is one of the best times to buy in the market. For a new investor, it is indeed an opportunity to be cashed upon to make some great long term investments. Of course having stocks available at cheap rates can be quite a temptation to get carried away which is why I feel there are certain quotes which apply specifically for me.

As Victor Sperandeo famously known as Wall Street's "Trader Vic" has rightly said “The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading.”

So keeping this expert advice in mind I feel I need to look at quotes which could form a base for my stock investing decisions. With so many companies to choose from the crucial decision in stock investing comes from selecting the right company.

As Warren Buffet has rightly quoted above we must really own a company which is worth owning forever. It is kind of like "Investing with sons-in-law".Invest only with people you like, trust and admire - people you'd be happy to have your daughter marry.

The right way to go about this is to look for companies which have a big moat. Businesses which have favorable long term prospects, and whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher 5, 10, 20 years from now must be analyzed. "If a business does well the stock eventually follows."

Once I manage to identify the company I would like to have a stake in the next suitable quote which should be a part of every single decision I take is “Buy when there's blood in the streets - sell to the sound of trumpets” – a nice variation of buy low, sell high. If I manage to stick to these few quotes I am sure I will always stay financially healthy.

Most importantly “Keep a Sense of Humor”

You'll definitely need it.We enter markets to make money which we use for our fulfillment. The entire process should be delightful and not just the final outcome.

SOME INVESTING EQUATIONS

Early Start , Small Investment = Late Start , More Investment

Term Insurance + Mutual Fund Investing > Money back insurance plans

Small investment * High Patience > Big investment * Low Patience (For stock market)

Risk of Loss = Investment / Patience

Probability of your investments to Grow = Knowledge + Patience + Tenure

All Tax Saving Mutual funds are not same !!!


All Tax Saving Mutual funds are not same !!!

This post targets those who already know ELSS or Taxsaver mutual funds. But many people do not know that not all ELSS are same.
They might know that Tax saver funds are Diversified equity Mutual funds , yes they are !!! . But still they can be differentiated in the catagory of :

- Aggressive Tax savers : These are the ELSS who bet more on small cap and mid cap stock, and hence have more return potential.

- Safe and balanced Tax savers : they heavely bet on Large Companies , which are more safe then mid cap or small cap stocks.

A person who want to invest in ELSS shall not put money in just 1 ELSS , but 2-3 different ELSS. Again Putting all money in same type of ELSS is not good , as they will be of same portfolio type ( i mean more stake in Huge companies and less in Mid and Small cap)

Rather , they shall put money in ELSS both types.
Let us see some top performing Mutual funds and there catagory:

Aggressive ELSS:
1. Birla Equity Plan - D
2. DSPML Tax Saver -G
3. Principal Personal Tax Saver

Safe ELSS
1. HDFC Taxsaver
2. HDFC Long Term Advantage
3. SBI Magnum Taxgain

Creating Weatlh for Long term through Equity

Creating Weatlh
We are going to discuss today, how a huge wealth can be created by in vesting with discipline over long period of time . We often think that investing a small sum of money will not be able to generate huge Wealth and we need to invest huge amount of money . Its obviously true that more money will create more wealth , but we are going to see today that we underestimate small savings and how small investments over a long period of time can generate fortunes.

Note : please don't think about $= Rs value in the below examples
How much wealth you can create, if you earn around $1000 /month (Rs 40,000 per month) and can invest 10% of that amount every month for next 30-35 yrs . I am assuming you are a 25 yrs old and retiring at the age of 60 (though i want to retire at 40) . Total dependents are 3-4 . And monthly expenditure is Rs 25,000 ($600/month) .
What kind of wealth can this person create ?

Can he invest Rs 5000 ($125) in a diversified Equity Mutual fund per month till his retirement. I hope the answer can be YES

As we said that he is investing in Equities , What kind of return should we expect ? 5% , 20% or 50% , but Wait ... Equities are risky , it can be negative also !!! . that's very true ... but People may not know that Equities are extremely risky in short term, but its almost not at all risky in long term , and if the long term = 35 yrs , then forget it , you can get some great returns. Risk in Equities are inversely proportional to the investment tenure. Well that's a different topic to talk about (And i will post an article on that soon , keeping an eye !!!) . Just for the data , Indian Stock markets have given return of 17%+ CAGR return in 28 years , from 1979 (inception) to 2007 . We are talking about Sensex.
So, to be safe we can easily consider 15% CAGR return in Long term (remember LONG TERM).

Coming to the point , It may happen that during initial years ,our investor may face difficulty investing this much money considering , he may have other important things to take of and later he may have more responsibilities. But during is career life , his salary will also rise and then 5000 will be a small percentage of his salary . So assuming he can do the investment we are proposing , what kind of retirement corpus he can build? Guesses ?
I am sure most of the people will be thinking the following way:
He invested 5000 * 12 in a year , which is 60,000 , and then he does it for 35 yrs , so he invests total of 60,000 * 35 = Rs 21,00,00 0 (21 lacs) . And he will get some return of 15% every year. if we take 15% of this 21 lacs , it will be around 3,00,00 , so total corpus = 24,000 and also as this is compounded , his interest will also keep growing at 15% , so it will be more than 24,00,000 , so lets take it 50,00,000 . Fine ...

Ok , let take 70,00,000 (70 lacs) to be safe. This is a calculation done not exactly by the proper annuity formula, but a workaround , which a general person can think of.
How much does he generate with this strategy
You may know the fact of Early investing and how compounding is a great tool. But keep going ahead .So the question is What will be his corpus , can it be anywhere near to 70,00,000 . The answer is that his actual Wealth will be way beyond this amount. After doing the actual calculation i can see that it will come around 7.43 Crores (Rs 74 million) . But how is it possible , such a big amount !!! . That's because of compounding power . The interest earns interest and that again earns interest and this keeps on going. Initially the interest earned is very small , but as the time passes , the amount keeps growing and the interest also grows at an unbelievable amount. Can you believe that this investor will earn more than 1.04 Crores only in interest in his 35th year (last year) , more than 4 times the money he actually invested whole his life. That's all possible because of systematic and consistent investing with out fail and because of Power of compounding.
Thats the reason why one of the greatest Scientist Albert Einstein said "Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the World".

So it that all we are going to talk about today , NO !!! We have more to talk on this topic

Why does this investor takes pain of investing that 5,000/month all this life. What if he invests just 10 yrs and leaves that money to grow for another 25 yrs. What if this is his plan till retirement.
The sudden thing which will come to your mind is that he invests for 35 yrs and created wealth of 7.43 crores , What if he just invests for 10 yrs .. it should be 10/35 * 7.43 crores = 2.12 Crores . Is that true ?

Will it actually be 2.12 Crores only. The answer is NO !!! . Then the question is how significantly different will his Wealth be in this case. The Answer is 5.88 Crores. Yes it will not be significantly less but just 21% less . So Just by not investing for 71% tenure he actually gets 21% less money , thats not a bad deal !!!
But wait , What if he wants that same 7.43 crores at the end , and still wants to invest for 10 yrs. the obvious way out is to invest more than his regular 5,000 per month . The question now is HOW MUCH MORE !!!

The answer is Rs 1420 more . Instead of 5,000 , he should invest Rs 6,420 per month for 10 yrs and then leave the money to grow for rest of 25 yrs. And he can generate wealth of Rs 7.43 Crores.

What we can learn from this

So there is a learning here and a very important thing to note , that more pain we take in the start , the better it is . In the initial years of career , its possible for people to invest more , as they have less responsibilities to handle and less dependents. So it may be feasible for them to invest heavily in the initial phase of there career, which will benefit them for long term . Now see this person . Instead of investing 5,000 for whole of 35 yrs , If he chooses to take a little more pain in the initial 10 yrs and manages to invest Rs 1,420 more per month , then he can save investing for 25 yrs of his life and still can generate same Money.
One great question now !!!

What if our investor is ready to invest his 50% salary (20,000) per month for starting 2 yrs and then let it grow for rest 33 yrs. He is ready to heavily invest first 2 yrs of his career and do some sacrifices like not spending too much , no vacation , no fancy spending and all.

Can he still beat the target !!
Will he be able to generate the same Wealth for himself like in earlier examples !!
So here you go !!! , He will not only achieve the target , but exceed it . His Wealth will be 9.24 Crores (Rs. 92.4 million) at the end of 35 yrs. I know that's an Eye-opener . So now you know that the best time to invest was 5, 10 or 20 yrs ago , but if you missed it , don't worry :) . there is another golden chance and that's NOW !!!

please let me know what you feel about this article , that helps me to refine and write better articles .Thanks , Happy Investing

Four Pillars of Success for a Strong Portfolio.

FEATURES OF STRONG PORTFOLIO:

What make a healthy investor?

There are some good traits of portfolio which makes it better than others . A good and strong portfolio has some strong elements or parameters which it must meet . These are the Pillars for a strong Portfolio or Investments. Important Elements are :


1. Capital Appreciation

2. Liquidity

3. Risk Management

4. Goal Oriented

Lets take each of these points one by one :

Capital Appreciation

This is one of the biggest reason to invest. Isn't it very obvious? Yes , it is . But the main point is not just its growth in numbers but its real worth . We are talking about Post-tax and post inflation returns .The real return of Plain Fixed Deposits in these high inflation days are negligible when you factor out Inflation and tax .The best investment must be robust and good enough to provide appreciation in real worth over long period of time . Real Estate and Equity (Long term) can generate good returns



Liquidity

Another important aspect of a good portfolio is that its provide enough liquidity , so that in case of need , you can get the money .What is Liquidity ? Liquidity is how fast and easily asset can be sold and you can get cash . For example Mutual funds and Shares are highly Liquid , If you have them and want to sell, you can get the money soon . Where as Real estate is not a Liquid asset . So if you need urgent cash , you might not find right price and or buyer.Every portfolio must have some element of Liquidity, as per the requirement of the investor.



Risk Management

Every portfolio or investment must be to some level insured or have element of risk managementWhat do we mean by this? A good investor is one who sees beyond what an average investor cant see. Average investors concentrate very well on Profits , How good an investment can be , High returns etc. An exceptional investor goes beyond that and takes care of Worst case Scenarios and situations which may cause damage. He is the real investor .



Some of the steps to be taken are :

- Adequate Insurance to be taken .

- Proper monitoring of performance of investment.

- Getting out early in a bad investment and accepting that you made a wrong decisions.

- keep your self updated with news ,laws , things which can affect you investments .



Risk management is not buying some product for managing risk but being aware of things and taking right and logical decisions.



Goal Oriented

"A good investment is one which has a purpose"

Each and every investment should be done because of a strong reason . I see people who take Insurance policies to save tax at the last rush hour of the year !!! . Better loose the tax benefit and don't take that policy . That kind of investment is nothing more than a waste or burden. On the top of it these people don't even need insurance !!!

When someone asks you the reason for making a investment , you should know why you did it ?



Some of the bad or idiotic reasons for doing investments are :

- I can save tax by that

- My friend did it and recommended me

- Everyone is doing it .. why shouldn't I ?



Every time you take a decision ask yourself some questions like :

- Do i really need it at this point of time ?

- Can i afford it ?

- Do i understand it well ? Can i protect myself if people make me fool ?

- What is the purpose or goal of this investment ?



If you get satisfactory answers go for it else take an expert advice.



Summary



Each and every person portfolio should be strong on all the areas , it should pass all the criteria to some extent . A portfolio should pass all the parameters for different requirements . If you have a portfolio ask yourself all these questions :



- Is it good enough to provide stable and good returns over long term . Is capital appreciation happening in Value or just numbers are growing , but post-tax and post-inflation returns are negligible .

- If i require instant money within 2 hrs , 2 days or 5 days , Is my portfolio smart enough to provide me .

- Is my portfolio good enough to provide protection to me and my family against calamities or any unexpected events . Do i review my Portfolio in regular basis to cut out the losers .

- Is my portfolio a result of my Needs and requirements or Greed , Ignorance and Hearsay and emotional Buying ? If that's the case , take action !!!



Some I would be happy to read your comments !!!

Friday, July 3, 2009

Sensex Levels Projected for 2010…21000 ? Nah ! Unless !?

Taking a Sensex Earnings base of 840 for the just concluded FY 09 and Growth rates of 5% ,10% and 15% for FY 10,the Sensex throws up a projected range from 8820 ( 5 % Earnings Growth and a 10 Multiple) to 17388 ( 15 % Earnings Growth and a 18 Multiple )

It is unlikely that with a very challenging global economic scenario impacting India too ,earnings growth rate would again cross 20% in the short term and markets again beginning to offer valuation multiples of 20 and over…the re-rating had reversed to de-rating…and now reversed back in a blink,with this Sensational Clear Election Results Mandate to the Congress !


In Extreme Frenzy and Irrational Exuberance Times however,the Sensex level may go much lower than 8000 or even cross 20000 as Momentum,Sentiment and Liquidity will reign supreme over Macro Valuations.


We may get to see a Sensex of 21000 again in 2009/10 only if



  • Earnings grow at a rate of 20% to 30% for FY 10 and we see an EPS of 1000 and a 21 Multiple or an EPS of 1100 and a Multiple of 19…Highly unlikely or


  • This Bullish Sentiment intensifies and the Market begins to look ahead at FY 11 EPS Levels this year itself and the Sensex offers a Forward 18 to 20 Multiple for an EPS of 1100 +…Hmmmmm !…Risk of Market running ahead of Fundamentals

Rational Sense dictates a Sensex Range of 12000 to 16000 for the next few months…The Congress led UPA government has got a clear mandate and It is clear that the Reforms Process will get a shot in the arm…Pro reform Announcements through the Budget in July and otherwise are the next big triggers awaited…Power,Agriculture,Infrastructure being in clear focus.


Chances of a Sub 10000 Sensex have LOW and it WILL probability NOT testing October 2008 and March 2009 lows.